Council Post: Why Fans Crave Predictive Analytics—And How Sports Can Deliver Them

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Nancy Hensley is the Chief Product & Marketing Officer (CPMO) atStats Perform, bringing great products to market in Sportstech.

In his “Comedy Camisado” special, Hannibal Buress talks about “Bold Predictions,” an NFL segment where “four dudes sit around a table” and say outlandish things. He launches into a pretend conversation between two hosts:

“I think Peyton Manning is gonna throw for nine touchdowns.”

“Hey, that’s the name of the segment, isn’t it, man?”

“Well, OK, but what if he doesn’t throw for nine touchdowns?”

“Man, I’m not accountable for [anything] I’m saying up here.”

Through this humorous lens, Buress underscores a simple truth: Humans love being right. When we win at something—whether a sporting event, argument or prediction—our brains receive a boost of adrenaline and dopamine. That’s also why making a successful bet or taking home a fantasy football championship is so energizing.

The sports industry has grown considerably, thanks to more people understanding the power of predictive analytics. Now, broadcasts and social media teams are starting to realize the benefits of providing these metrics to fans.

Sure, you could take the same approach that Buress highlights and make bold claims without any data. But based on a recent Nielsen report that 51% of people are checking live stats while watching sports, fans are seeking more than just an opinion.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that providing a more data-rich experience where fans can interact with the data is the key to engaging a large population of today’s sports fans. Recognizing that not all fans want the same experience is equally important. That means engaging each type of fan with storytelling and visualizations without overwhelming them through tons of useless facts and figures.

Former baseball manager Joe Maddon made this point—and made waves—in September when he criticized the use of analytics. But Maddon believes the effectiveness of analytics isn’t the issue; it’s how they’re presented.

“You just need a nugget,” he said. “You don’t need all this. People want to tell you how to build a watch. I just need to know what time it is.”

Knowing your fan base is critical. At this year’s Leaders Week, new German Football League (DFL) CEO Donata Hopfen made a point that in their quest to create a more digital experience, they also can’t forget or isolate the more traditional fans. So, in our quest to provide a more data-rich experience, we must remember to also provide personalization and make the analytics consumable for all sports fans.

The upcoming World Cup is a perfect example of differentiating content based on fan preferences. Heavily invested fans might prefer to see live broadcast updates of stats. They also might want deep dives that predict game outcomes. A casual fan would rather see stories about the players themselves or perhaps the culture of the club or host country. That doesn’t mean eliminating predictive analytics entirely but rather using them to supplement a story that better resonates with that type of fan.

Here’s how sports teams, leagues and networks are delivering royally for their fans.

Meeting Fans Where They Are

Some people are connected to the internet at all hours. But many fans are on only one or two platforms, which makes it crucial to deliver the right content to each person.

Sports leagues and teams do a great job of this. They’ll share long-form player spotlight articles for fans who want to learn more about their team. They’ll offer statistical analysis for fans looking to find that perfect bet before kickoff. They’ll drop quick highlights for the busy fans who can’t catch the entire game.

Clubs and leagues can also work together to offer more personalized content by segmenting and analyzing data from their combined customer bases.

Sports leagues, teams and broadcasts aren’t just delivering data to their fans to tell engaging stories. They’re also using data to gain valuable insights into their operations.

After exploring shot-chart analysis, NBA teams learned three-pointers and layups were the most efficient shots. As a result, they retooled their offenses to be more effective on the court.

In 2021, the NFL hired achief data and analytics officer to lead multiple initiatives around the league, including player health and safety.

Through AI and machine learning, companies may even be able to predict injuries. Liverpool saw injuries cut in half after using Zone7 to develop training regiments and optimal resting schedules. The company 4D Motion Sports helps skaters track fatigue from too many jumps. The NFL uses player tracking through Zebra Technologies to monitor movement and collisions, resulting in rule changes to make the sport safer.

Old School And New

It’s important to remember that not everyone is “all in” on the value of more analytics and predictions in sports. I read an article recently about NYC radio hosts Boomer and Gio being “frustrated by the dominance of analytics in baseball.” They want a mix of “old school and analytics” as opposed to leaning heavily into the stats themselves. The solution is simple, the more everyone understands the predictions, the more they are willing to accept them. It’s up to all the companies and influencers delivering these analytics to take the time to write, educate and influence around their value to ALL fans—old school and new—as well as remind fans that the human is still in the loop. Coaches are using these predictions as a part of the bigger strategy. More analytics doesn’t take the coach out, it just gives them some additional superpowers.

All these advancements lead to better products on the field, court and ice.

This year’s World Cup will be an opportunity to put these analytics to the test. With data on our side, we can make those bold predictions come true.

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